REGIONAL AGING–NUMBERS AND PERCENTAGES OLDER THAN AGE 60 YEARS

REGIONAL AGING–NUMBERS AND PERCENTAGES OLDER THAN AGE 60 YEARS
Regions of the world are at very different stages of the demographic transition (Fig. 70-1). Of a world
population of 6.8 billion in 2009, approximately 11% were older than age 60 years, with Japan (30%)
and Europe (22%) being the oldest regions (Germany, Italy, and Sweden have the highest percentages,
25–26%), and the United States and Canada having 21% and 20%, respectively. The percentage of the
population older than age 60 years in the United States has remained lower than in Europe, due both tomodestly higher fertility rates and to higher rates of immigration. The Caribbean and some Latin
American countries average 10% older than age 60 years, with countries such as Uruguay, Cuba, and

Argentina in the 15–18% range. Asia has about 10% older than age 60 years, with the population
giants close to the average—China (12%), Indonesia (9%), and India (7%). Middle Eastern and African
countries have the lowest proportions of older people (5% or lower).

Percentages of national populations aged 60+, in 2010. (From the US Census Bureau, International
Database. StatPlanet Mapping Software.)
Based on estimates from the United Nations Population Division, 737 million people were older than age
60 years in 2009, of whom 264 million lived in more developed countries, 473 million in less developed
countries (43 million of the latter living in the least developed countries, as classified by the United
Nations). The countries with the largest populations of those aged 60 and older were China (160
million), India (89 million), and the United States (56 million).
NUMBERS–POPULATION SIZE PROJECTIONS
Population projections make use of expected fertility, mortality, and migration rates and should be
regarded as uncertain when applied 40 or more years in the future. However, the population that will be
aged 60 and older in 2050 have all been born and survived childhood in 2010, so uncertainty about
their numbers (as distinct from their proportion of the total population) is not great. Comparing the maps
of the world in 2010 (Fig. 70-1) and 2050 (Fig. 70-2), it is apparent that the middle- and low-income
countries in Latin America, Asia, and much of Africa will be joining the "oldest" category. In the four
decades between 2010 and 2050, the United Nations Population Division projects that the world
population aged 60 and older will almost triple to 2.01 billion, with the least developed regions more
than quadrupling. China's 60+ population is projected to reach 440 million, India's 316 million, and the
United States's 111 million. Over the next 40 years, the median age of the world's population is
expected to increase by 10 years.