Demography of aging around the world

Current global life expectancy at birth is estimated to be 65.4 for men and 69.8 for women, with the
comparable figures for the more developed region being 73.6 and 80.5 years. Life expectancy in the
least developed countries averaged only 57.2 for women and 54.7 for men. Life expectancy at birth is
heavily influenced by infant and child mortality, which is considerably higher in poor countries. At older

ages, the gap between rich and poor nations is narrower; so while women who have reached age 60 in
wealthy countries can expect 23.7 more years of life on average, women at age 60 in poor countries
live 16.8 years on average—a significant difference but not so stark as the difference in life expectancy
at birth. At the lowest levels of per capita GNP, life expectancy shows a powerful positive association
with this measure of economic development but then the slope of the relationship flattens out; for
countries with average incomes above about $20,000 per years life expectancy is not closely related to
income. At each level of economic development, there is significant variation in life expectancy,
indicating that many other factors influence life expectancy.
Japan, France, Italy, and Australia currently have life expectancy among the highest in the world, while
the United States has lagged behind other high-income countries since about 1980, especially in the
case of white women. The causes of this lag are being explored, but the cumulative number of years
that people have smoked tobacco by the time they reach older ages appears to play an important role.
GROWTH OF THE OLDEST OLD POPULATION–THOSE OVER AGE 85
A modern feature of population aging has been the almost explosive growth of the age group known as
the oldest old, variously defined as those over age 80 or age 85. This is the age group with the highest
burden of noncommunicable degenerative disease and related disability. Thirty years ago, this group
attracted little attention because they were hidden within the overall older population in most statistical
reports; for example, the U.S. Census Bureau merged them into a 65+ category. The reduction of
mortality at older ages coupled with larger birth cohorts surviving into old age led to the rapid growth of
the oldest old. This age group is predicted to grow at a significantly higher rate than the 60+ population
and one estimate has the current 102 million aged 80+ increasing to almost 400 million by 2050 (Table
70-2). Projected increases are astounding: China's 80+ population might increase from 18 to 101
million, India from 8 million to 43 million, the United States from 12 to 32 million, and Japan from 8 to 16
million. The numbers of centenarians are increasing at an even faster rate.
Table 70-2 Estimates (2009) and Projections (2050) for the Population Aged 80 Years and
Older: Selected Regions and Countries.